The Impact of External Debt on the Nigerian Economy

Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa (Volume 10, No.3, 2008) ISSN: 1520-5509 Clarion University of Pennsylvania, Clarion, Pennsylvania THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Folorunso S. Ayadi University of Lagos Felix O. Ayadi Texas Southern University Abstract This paper investigates the impact of the huge external debt, with its servicing requirements, on economic growth of the Nigerian and South African economies. The external debts of Nigeria and South Africa are analyzed in a new context utilizing traditional, but innovative, models and econometric techniques. The Neoclassical growth model, which incorporates external sector, debt indicators, and some macroeconomic†¦show more content†¦South Africa’s loan increased from 40% to 70% of foreign debt. Its total foreign indebtedness increased steadily as loans were acquired from the IMF, whenever the foreign bankers turn down its request for loan. In addition, indebtedness was stabilized through gold swap. The debt problem became endemic in 1984, as about two-thirds of its outstanding loans had a maturity of one year or less. The public sector was responsible for the 16% of South Africa’s foreign debt; 44% of South Africa’s foreign liabilities were inc urred by the banking sector; the remaining 40% were private liabilities. When Chase Manhattan withdrew substantial credit lines from South Africa in 1985, a major foreign debt crisis became glaring. The impact of credit freeze and refusal to roll credit over on South Africa led to a drop in the value of rand (South African currency) and temporary closure of the financial and foreign-exchange market. Liabilities not affected by the freeze include trade credits, credits guaranteed by the Paris Club, member governments, and loans from IMF and Central Banks. Also compounding South Africa’s debt problem was the large proportion of debt that was denominated in hard non-dollar currencies, but appreciated in dollar terms as the dollar weakened. Since then, South Africa’s external debt has been high and continued to follow a predictable upward trend, exerting substantial negative impact on productivity and growth. The Deutsche Bank (2008) showed the South AfricanShow MoreRelate dThe Petroleum Revenue And Economic Growth Essay1610 Words   |  7 Pagesdomestic product. Petroleum sector is the mainstay of Nigerian economy since its discovery in commercial quantity in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State Nigeria in 1956. From 1970 to 2009, the income from petroleum stood at 82 percent with 18 percent from non-oil revenue. According to the world bank, â€Å"Nigeria is the biggest exporter of oil in Africa with the largest natural gas reserve in the continent†. One of the main sources of petroleum income to the Nigerian government is the petroleum Profit Tax. This petroleumRead MoreAspects of Economic Reforms in the Nigerian Fourth Republic5141 Words   |  21 PagesASPECTS OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE NIGERIAN FOURTH REPUBLIC BY ADEBAYO, A. ADEKUNLE E-mail : mayowa2000ng@yahoo.com YUSUF M.0 (MRS) DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MICHAEL OTEDOLA COLLEGE OF PRIMARY EDUCATION, NOFORIJA, P.M.B. 1028, EPE, LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA. ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE NIGERIAN FOURTH REPUBLIC ABSTRACT In Nigeria, the return to democratic rule in 1999 led to a myriad of programmes and strategies that were aimedRead MoreThe Effects of Military Governance in Nigeria Essay1442 Words   |  6 Pagesaffected the livelihood of the Nigerian people. The struggle for power has been a toss-up between civilian governments and militaristic dictators, each fighting to gain control of the lucrative oil reserves. As the military seeks to rid corruption from the ruling body, it has brought additional struggles to everyday life in Nigeria. Military governments in Nigeria have proven to be detrimental to the political strive towards democracy, the economic struggle to eliminate debt, and the livelihood of localRead MoreSources Of Income For Individuals Developing Countries1498 Words   |  6 Pagesrenewed scrutiny. Although the empirical evidence on the impact of remittances on economic growth appears to be mixed, it is nonetheless recognized that, since remittance flows are used either to incr ease consumption or investment, they have the potential to become an important tool for economic development (Fayissa and Nsiah 2008; Ratha 2007). Also, it has been noted that a significant portion of remittance flows are used to service debt, and increase foreign exchange reserves (Das and Serieux 2010)Read MoreEssay about FC Determination Case Deloitte Cases 1569 Words   |  7 Pageswhich functional currency should be implemented by the foreign subsidiaries. This case focuses in Sparkle a Nigerian subsidiary of a joint venture formed by U.S. – based companies with US functional currency; This Company is assessing several factors that will be discussed in the following paragraphs to determine its functional currency. Currency Determination Sparkle Company is a Nigerian diamond company owned by U.S. established companies, during 2009 had the subsequent transactions: Loans: $1Read MoreFactors That Affects The Global Economy And Its Impact On The Nigeria And Egypt Economy1568 Words   |  7 Pagesaffects the global economy and their impact on the Nigeria and Egypt economy. In 2007, the financial crisis, which later extended to the global financial crisis began in the United States of America. The origin and elements of the 2007/2012 global financial crisis have been widely discussed in the literature throughout the period. 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However, with the advent of the crude petroleum sectorRead MoreThe International Monetary Fund ( Imf )1501 Words   |  7 Pagesimpose on borrowing nations by the IMF usually bring unfold hardships such as unemployment, low standard of living and depressed economy etc. Nigeria is currently experiencing all these problems. The International Banka Reconstruction and development (IBRD), IBRD was established in 1944 with it’s headquarters in Washington D.C. U.S.A IBRD aim of reconstructing the economy of member nations ,assisting the development of countries by giving them long term loan and providing technical assistance toRead MoreEffects of Finanacial Crises on Nigerian Capital Market5207 Words   |  21 PagesWith its roots in banking, the sub-prime mortgage crisis that commenced in the United States in 2007 soon resonated in other sectors of its financial system, and the economy, at large. It spread quickly to the developed economies in Europe, including the United Kingdom, and Asia -with Japan becoming well affected. The emerging economies were not isolated. A transmission channel of the global financial crisis, which has been referred to as the â€Å"Globalised Synchronized Slowdown† is the stock market SERE-EJEMBIRead MoreThe Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Macroeconomic Perf ormance in Nigeria22514 Words   |  91 PagesTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY This study is designed to examine the causes of exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on the Nigerian economy since there is scarcely any country that lives in absolute autarky in this globalised world. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset or/and goods markets. This linkage is made possible through

A Task Force - 1422 Words

A task force was formed to examine issues surrounding null hypothesis significance testing and the publication of research studies regarding these results. As a result of this task force, recommendations were made to revise statistical sections of the APA publication manual. But before these revisions were implemented, the Board of Scientific Affairs (BSA) recommended to initiate discussion of these changes, the task force publish an article in American Psychologist, hence this article. I will break down these suggestions in methods, results and discussion. METHODS It is important in the design portion that the researcher is very clear and concise on the type of study they are conducting, and making it clear if there are multiple goals. By making the design section clear and concise, there is no question on what the researchers are trying to accomplish and what their goals are. Defining a population is critical to any conclusions in an article. The definition of the population, including any control groups, of the study must be clear and concise, including the characteristics, which can affect the interpretation of the data. Within the population we have the sample, the procedures of which need to be clear and concise as well, including all relevant information. If the data is clustered or stratified, as opposed to random samples, we must include that information as it will affect interval estimates. Sample size can be critical to the results of a study, to it is importantShow MoreRelatedThe Marine Air Ground Task Force2305 Words   |  10 Pagesself-sufficiency an essential element of the Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) expeditionary warfighting capabilities. This means that the Marine Corps’ logistics mission, at all commands and support levels, is to generate MAGTFs that are rapidly deployable, self-reliant, self-sustaining, and flexible an d that can rapidly reconstitute (Logistics Operations, 1999). While the Marine Corps is unmatched in its ability to be the most rapid responding force across the globe, a deficiency exists that should beRead MoreEssay about The Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF)1372 Words   |  6 PagesConventional warfare follows the single battle concept, where two or more well defined forces using weapons that target the opposing force. The contiguous battle-space is well defined with a deep, close and rear area allowing the force commander to array forces that can be visually displayed in a linear graphic. This does not hold true in an unconventional warfare, where the rear area may also be the close and deep fight and forces may target the civilian population either through direct, indirect or propagandaRead MoreObserver Fires Essay12305 Words   |  50 PagesSupport at Battalion Task Force and Below FINAL DRAFT 31 May 2001 FM 3-09.30 (6-30) Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Observed Fire and Fire Support at Battalion Task Force and Below DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ARMY HEADQUARTERS, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY Preface The purpose of this field manual (FM) is to provide a source for the most current essential information about fire support at the battalion task force and company teamRead MoreAston Blair Case Essay1039 Words   |  5 Pagesdocument from Meir and the rest of the task force team. Dr. Cornelius was informed of Bodin’s 6 summary statement report which suggests that the regional sales managers were consistently overstating their sales estimates in order to ensure adequate inventory and rapid delivery. Bodin shared his findings with Bacon and Reiss, in confidence, and they all agreed that none of the information would be presented in the August 4th presentation or to the task force team until Bodin had the opportunity toRead MoreThe Legal Aspect Of At T1569 Words   |  7 Pagestheir price points are very comparable. Therefore, to continue to remain where they are today, they need to create a product that will allow them to stand out from their competitors. To do so, they need t o create a product with unique features. This task can be accomplished through the partnership of innovative ideas from their employee’s ideas and the current skilled employees working together to create, test, and market the new products. One thing to consider are the possibilities Time Warner willRead MoreAcme Minerals Extraction Company1419 Words   |  6 Pagesdoing only that task. Then, with the new technology innovations, we start seeing how companies started to trained some employees to be what they usually called â€Å"multi-tasking employees†. Since technology kept changing and became more advanced companies realized that having â€Å"multi-tasking employees† was not enough to satisfy the market demands and the production problems they were having at that moment. In other to solve these problems, group of employees were assigned different tasks, and without probablyRead MoreL Oreal Inc.1192 Words   |  5 Pagesactivities, the higher awareness they receive. L’Orà ©al can set up more groups or tasks to let more employees to involve. As the article â€Å"Diversity as Strategy† talks about the example of IBM, which established task forces to make a powerful impression on employees (p.100). 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While the military is largely known for fighting and winning the nation’s wars, it is not uncommon for military commanders to face challenges outside that of military combat operations. One of the more challenging operations that Joint Force Commanders face, is that of responding to natural disasters. While military commanders may conduct exercises both in the United States and with our coalition partners and allies, natural disasters that require a military response have unique challengesRead MoreEssay on Acton-Burnett Summary2139 Words   |  9 PagesQuestions Response by Fermions 1. What differences, if any, exist between the problems that the task force has been asked to address and the â€Å"real† problems? Two Vice Presidents for the company Keene and Ryan come to the conclusion that a task force must be created to make sense of the final forecast and product demand forecast that the four marketing managers created. The task force found many problems some being systematic bias and that it seemed information was being withheld. In the

Branding Essay Free Essays

BRANDING ESSAY Subject: The brand as an aspirational and cultural agent 14/03/2013 According to Philip J. Kotler â€Å"a brand is a name, term, sign symbol or design, or a combination of them to identify the goods or services of one seller or a group of sellers and to identify them from the competitors†. This definition expresses the brand as the sum of the representations that we have, however, the brand is also a cultural agent. We will write a custom essay sample on Branding Essay or any similar topic only for you Order Now To remain permanently in the mind of the consumer brands must build a recognizable brand and offer their cultural role models to their customers. Thus it is necessary to include this cultural aspect to the marketing strategy of the brand. After explaining how this cultural and aspirational aspect is characterized in the minds of consumers and brands, it will be interesting to know its origins and consequences, finally understand why and how a brand builds a culture and a strong identity. The success of a brand depends not only on the functional value it offers to consumers, its reputation and good health depends heavily on the emotional value it adds through its products. And the brands gain momentum in today’s culture, they seek to become mirrors of our personalities and that is why it is indispensable to build a distinctive brand image. The brand positioning is to place an image in the mind of the consumer. The success of the brand in the consumer’s opinion is fundamentally dependent on its desire to appropriate the brand and express it as a part of his personality. This cultural dimension of the brand had been discussed by Jean-Noel Kapferer (French expert of brands) in his book â€Å"Les marques, capital de l’entreprise† in 1990. He expresses the cultural facet of the brand as a key element of brand identity. In the same vein he argues that brands around the products and services sold, build aspirational universe in order to stand out and sell their products. This universe consists of all intangible assets acting as symbols, references, lifestyles, emotions etc. †¦ feature of the brand. This set forms a specific imaginary that illustrates the values and the brand positioning to form a unique cultural heritage (Jean-Noel Kapferer et Vincent Bastien, Luxe Oblige, 2008) This heritage must be expressed and transmitted to the consumer to feel the desire to join and share. Even if this has a great value in brand equity, it is not enough to form a brand culture. The cornerstone of its creation is a major concept; which is distinct to the brand and based on an innovative aspect (e. g. Nike and culture transcendence). In this case there is a set of communication shared by a class of consumers relaying the brand culture. This research of brand culture is becoming more and more important, especially because consumers search meaning in their consumption and they need to be involved in this consumer society that is constantly evolving. Similarly, the development of the media and especially the internet makes it fertile ground for the development of this cultural facet. We are part of a brands cultural bath influencing us in all our acts of consumption. The brand is a center of social identification of the individual, our consumption reflects our identity. Especially for brands that operate as social signs (car brands, clothing, food, telephone, etc. †¦ ). And brands have become cultural facts, when we consume we do not consume only the product but also the brand. Every act of consumption is symbolic and cultural; there is no longer a pure commercial consumption. The brand becomes a symbol, a materiel embodiment of the myth. So as customers drink, drive or wear the product, they experience a bit of the myth. † (Douglas B. How Brands Become Holt in Icons, The Principles of Cultural Branding, 2004). He explains this behavior like this: â€Å"Customers use iconic brands as symbolic salves. They grab hold of the myth as they use the product as a means to lessen their identity burdens†. It means that the brand through its culture must convey specific models to achieve the desires and soothe the anxieties of consumers. The purpose of brands is to create moments of recognition that put images, sounds, feelings, on the deep desires of customers. Holt adds that a strong brand identity and a clearly identifiable culture have a positive effect on the brand and business: â€Å"When a brand delivers a powerful myth that customers find useful in cementing their identities, this identity value casts a halo on other aspects of the brand. Great myths enhance the brand’s quality reputation, distinctive benefits, and status value. † This halo effect shows brands cannot underestimate their cultural influence. The essential idea in this concept of culture is that it is an integral part of the brand, but she is not defined consistently. It is universal and timeless at the same time it must keep its customers at every change of generation. The success of a brand lies in its ability to adapt to a given society, to know how to react when tensions and desires of consumers mutate. Or that Accordance must match the brand identity. Success comes once the brand has articulated the brand identity with market expectations through the establishment of a strong brand culture. For example Nike in its infancy based its marketing strategy on its philosophy of self-transcendence, a value in accordance with an aspiration of American society in the post-prosperity when the logic of the American dream seemed to have lost its splendor. The socio-economic changes constantly and attitudes of societies are transformed. Thus it is essential that brand can find what, in its identity, can meet the expectations of customers in the generational change. The consumer’s desire is not focused on a specific good or service, this desire is by cluster (Gilles Deleuze, French philosopher, Anti-Oedipus, 1977). This means that when the customer is considering purchasing, the choice is not just the object itself but to all cultural, symbolic or historic associations attached to them. For example when I want this dress that is behind the showcase, I do not just want this dress, but the shoes that go with the silhouette, the style, the man, the romantic dinner and almost the lifestyle that goes with this dress. And brands need to rethink their communication model to know the consumer interest in all that associations of the product. They can no longer base their identity on customer insights; it must do so on a strong culture. The brand identity is not an element to be overlooked in a marketing strategy because the cultural and aspirational aspect it reveals is becoming increasingly important in the consumer’s decision. Brands must know how to create interest and special recognition in his mind through communicating their values and their major concept. The customers’ expectations continually evolving, that is why it is important for brands to adapt through the establishment of a strong and sustainable brand culture. I hope you understand that as an Erasmus student I used for my research French theories to support my arguments. Well I apologize for any mistakes in English that I could commit. ) Bibliography * Jean-Noel Kapferer, Les marques, capital de l’entreprise (1990) * Jean-Noel Kapferer et Vincent Bastien, Luxe Oblige, Paris, Eyrolles (2008) * Douglas B. Holt, How Brands Become Icons, The Principles Of Cultural Branding, Harvard Business School Press (2004) * Gilles Deleuze et Felix Guattari, Anti- OEdipe, Editions de Minuit, 1977. How to cite Branding Essay, Essays

Asthmatic Bronchitis

Question: Write an essay on The causes of asthmatic bronchitis. Answer: Every time a person breathes in, the air enters through the nose and mouth. The air then flows down ones throat into a series of passages of air called the bronchial tubes. These tubes are supposed to be open so as to allow for the air to reach the lungs where the oxygen gets passed into the blood plasma to be transported into ones body tissues. If inflamed, the airways get complications with the air being blocked as the passage becomes impossible (Anon, 1975, 16). With the passage being blocked and less air getting in, there is a shortage of air in the lungs and as such, breathing difficulty becomes imminent. The individual becomes and feels short of breath. This may lead to an obvious case of wheezing and or coughing in an attempt draw in more oxygen via the tightened passageways. Bronchitis and asthma are known to be two inflammatory airway disorders. Acute bronchitis refers to an inflammatory condition of the airway lining that normally recovers itself after going through its course. The causal agents for this condition are either viruses or bacteria. Chronic bronchitis, on the other hand, being the longest regarding its shelf-life is triggered by one being exposed to environmental agents of irritation like tobacco, dust, smoke and chemicals among other irritants (Springer, 2016, 33). Asthma, on the other hand, is an inflammatory disorder that causes the tightening of muscles surrounding the airways as well as their swelling which in most cases, causes the airways to narrow (Springer, 2016, 30). The causes of asthmatic bronchitis There are many triggers known to trigger the release of inflammatory elements. The common trigger of asthmatic bronchitis includes tobacco smoke, allergens like pollens, dust, mold, food additives, chemicals, some groups of medications like aspirin and beta-blockers, weather changes and viral or bacterial infections. The symptoms of asthmatic bronchitis include shortness of breath, wheezing, tightness in chest, coughing and mucus production in excess. It should be noted that asthmatic bronchitis is not contagious (Springer, 2016, 30). DRG refers to a system of patient classification based primarily on their related diagnosis and co-morbidities, complications and procedures that form the basis for calculating the public hospital funding in Australia. In full, AR-DRGs is Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups, which in this brief, Asthma and Bronchitis is given attention. The DRG consists of 670 patient classes and which are allocated classes that are used to determine their weighted inlier equivalent separation (WIES) value for a given patient admission which ultimately, is assigned a dollar value (Hosford-Dunn, et al., 2008, 12). Essentially, a DRG program is put in place to help determine the kind of DRG is suitably assigned for a given patient based on the coded ICD analysis, additional diagnoses as well as other procedural codes (Hosford-Dunn, et al., 2008, 12). DRG standards in Australia The National Case-mix and Classification Centre formed part of the Australian Health Services Research Institute and was formed in March 2010 after efforts by the University of Wollongong in its move to develop international Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems among other major health concerns (Mackay, B., 1995, 9).The Australian Health facilities have thus adopted a DRG coding system at which point 23 major categories of diagnoses are based. For any patient admission, a DRG Grouper analysis is carried out which then allocated individual patient based on age, sex, their clinical edits and consequently, assign them an MDC, performs a pre-MDC processing on them, assigns adjacent DRG and then compile and comorbid the level and determines the level of the complexity of the PCCL assignment. After determining the above, it then becomes clear for the DRG Grouper to assign a patient a DRG (Mackay, B., 1995, 9). The common notable DRG codes for admissions without catastrophic co-morbidities with this respect in UTS Hospital is E69B. By definition, Asthma is a chronic inflammatory condition of the airways. Among susceptible individuals, the inflammatory processes cause some recurrent episodes of collagen deposition, breathlessness, cough, chest tightness and wheezing. These episodes are normally accompanied by variable obstructions of air which are sometimes reversible by treatment or just a spontaneous process (Moore, G., 1890, 11).It should be noted that asthma inflammations are characterized by hyper-reactivity of the bronchial. The inflammation, therefore, becomes the result of the vasodilation as well as the increase of the vaso-permeability and endothelial adhesiveness to the leukocyitic cells from circulation to the body tissues and fluid (Moore, G., 1890, 11). Close to 22 million Australians have asthma, and it is among the common chronic diseases among children whose numbers are capped at 6 million. The weight of the disease affects not only the patients but also the families and society as a whole regarding schooling and other costs that are directly related to production (Anon, 2009, 10). An improved scientific concept of understanding the asthma conditions has seen remarkable interventions that have posed significant improvements on how to handle cases of asthma. There are no exact causes of asthma, and it is believed to be as a result of the combination of several factors even though the two main factors are thought to include environmental and genetic factors (Anon, 1973, 143-144). This report includes a multi-scenario forecast for asthma therapeutics in Australia. The current asthma treatment guidelines and choices, a detailed pipeline analyses, a clinical trial result, the main drivers and barriers, the promising pipeline molecules and the strategic as well as co-development deals among the key players in therapeutic asthma markets. Treatment of asthma can be classified as either long term meditation or a quick relief meditation that are aimed at relieving the exacerbations as well as the acute symptoms. The long term control meditations are known to include Inhaled Corticosteroids, immunomodulators, cromolyn sodium, nedocromil, methylxanthines and leukotriene modifiers (Tulchinsky et al. 23). Additionally, the long acting beta-adrenoceptor Agonists also abbreviated as LABAs can be made use of when combined with inhaled corticosteroids. This should however not be used a monotherapy for the severe or mild asthma. To date, only one biologic omalizumab is recognized and approved as an add-on treatment of therapy for allergic asthma in Australia. Nonetheless, there is an unfulfilled need that is yet to be met, and that is the treatment of acute eosinophilic asthma (Tuberculosis, 1969, 21). Scope of the report The contemporary asthma market in Australia contains novel products that include Xolair, which is a recombinant humanized monoclonal anti-IgE antibody, seretide/ Adoair, an ICS-LABA among others. Having over 274 molecules, some late stage investigational f=drug candidates are under evaluation with improved dosing administration and regime routes being compared to the contemporary market products (Einf, 1970, 24-26). The analyses of the clinical trials carried out since the year 2006 has brought about the identification of failure rates when it comes to asthma molecules. These were capped at the highest rate being in Phase III representing a percentage of 46, an overall attrition rate of the development of asthma being capped at 78 percent (Lorig, K. 2012, 17). In the forecast period of between 2017 and 2021, the asthma therapeutics in the Australian continent is expected to rise in value at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2 percent that ranges from $3.5 billion to close to $5.6 bi llion (Maddock, A.,1855, 18). The rising prevalence and the uptake of newer biologists are projected to have a significant market growth in the course of the forecast period despite the affordability issues. The importance of this report This report will help the UTS hospital governing council in- Understanding the clinical context of bronchitis and asthma through the considerations of symptoms, etiology, epidemiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis and the treatment options. Identifying the strategies of therapy, products and the companies that dominate the current products landscape and the recognition gaps as well as the areas of the unmet needs. Identifying the key pipeline trends in the molecule type, novelty, administration route, and the mechanism of action for the same Considering the market opportunities as well as the potential risks through examining the trends in asthma and bronchitis clinical trials, duration, and failure rates through a stage-wise development, molecule types and the mechanism of action of the trial. Recognizing the late stage molecules that demonstrate strong therapeutic potentials in asthma through the examination of clinical trial data as well as the multi-scenario products that forecast the projections. Discovering the trends in the licensing and development deals that concern the asthma products as well as identifying the key strategic consolidations that shape the commercial landscape. Notably, there are comparatively a trivial number of patients having chronic medical conditions, and this accounts for the larger percentage of the inpatient costs. There is some considerable evidence asserting that case management can help in improving the quality of life health wise as well as reducing the number of time a patient can get readmitted. To establish whether or not a statistical algorithm can be employed in identifying patients risks of readmission and whoever will derive benefits from the case management (Understanding bronchitis and asthma, 1965, 296). METHODS The UTS database for the hospital patients who had at any time secured an emergency admission for the chronic medical disorders like the congestive heart failure, the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and dementia among others. The multivariate logistic regression was employed in developing an algorithm for the prediction of readmission within a given period of time. The performance of this algorithm was piloted against recoded readmissions with such considerations done on sensitivity, likelihood ratios and specificity (Russell, H., 1934, 231-231). Results There were several factors that were identified to serve as sure predictors of readmission, that is, age, economic disadvantages, co-morbidities and previous cases of admissions among other factors. The power of discrimination model proved to be modest as was determined by the area under receiver operating characteristics known as the ROC curve denoted as c and caped at c= 0.65. At a score threshold that is capped at 50 and which is considered a risk zone, the algorithm was identified to be 44.7 percent of the patients who were admitted with a condition of admission being in the 12 months of 37.5 percent of the patients flagged incorrectly (Shayevitz, M., Shayevitz, 1991, 31). The statistical algorithm based on the UTS hospital data accomplished just some moderate identification of patients at risk of getting readmitted. Data The data for the patients in the public sector came from the UTS hospital, meaning that the inter alia, the demographic traits of patients, the principal diagnosis, the other treated conditions, and other procedures performed to the effect. The UTSHAPDC is kind of similar to the routine databases of the inpatient in some states and territories within the Australian continent and is also more likely to differ substantially from the states in the United Kingdom (Simpson, A. 1857, 57). The inclusion criterion In the survey, a list of 28 conditions was made use of. These included congestive heart failure, the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and dementia among others. Below is the reference table used in defining cases for the predictive algorithm. Patients were picked for inclusion in this study if they had any form of an emergency inpatient admission for the reference condition. The admissions represented a percentage of the inpatients identified to be using the AR-DRG codes as well as the emergency admissions of inpatients as defined in the treating physicians opinion. In case the patient had more multiple emergency admissions, the first admission is taken as the trigger for the admission for purposes of consistency with the precious studies. Sensitivity analyses carried out indicated that patients with multiple admissions made no difference concerning the results whether the first or the last admission was selected for purposes of triggering the admission (Watts, R. 1999, 249-252). Outcome measure Patients were classified as either readmitted if within the first 12 months after discharge for purposes of initiating admission, they had witnessed at least an acute admission. The predictor variables The demographic characteristics of the area of focus were obtained from the trigger entry and entailed such factors as sex, age, Indigenous statuses, socioeconomic status and marital status among other traits. The Indigenous status was collected from the UTSHAPDC and categorized as non-indigenous versus native. The use of SEIFA mainly characterized the socio-economic status, particularly noted as the social and economic indexes for the areas, the index of the disadvantages and advantages based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is by all means a composite measure describing an area advantage or disadvantage based on the range of social as well as economic factors based on the census data (Weissflog, D. 2000, 333). Co-morbidities The presence of the co-morbidities recognized from the perspective of both primary and secondary diagnoses for the trigger of admission as well as the acute admissions before the trigger makes up the event. Having the decision to carry out an evaluation of the comorbidities throughout the admissions including the admission for trigger was meant to give an account of the potential lapses as used in the coding of the various diagnoses. The comorbid conditions in the question were synonymous to the reported study in the United Kingdom (Weissflog, D. 2000, 333). The comorbidity conditions as evaluated in the development of risk algorithm Statistical algorithm Predictive algorithm The predictive algorithm as developed through the use of logistic regression. This regression was applied to the SAS version of 9.1. The predictor measures were given a further analysis within the natural groups and aimed at minimizing the co-linearity and the prevention of a vast number of the conceptually equal measures from doing anything close to saturating the archetype. For instance, the social demographic variables entered into the regression model as a group identifying the best subset for purposes of the proposed selection methods (Maddock, A., 1855, 24). CONCLUSION For the purpose of consistency, the previous admissions as enumerated preceded the trigger admissions for the number of years. These included such things as any forms of admission or the kind of emergency admission. The measures so displayed indicated the natural skewness of the hospital use of data which was seen to be resolved through the measure of the ordinal variable being categorized as 0, 1, and 2 and so on. Works Cited Anon, 1998. Clinical management of HIV and AIDS at district level, New Delhi: World Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asia. Anon, 1975. Health and safety a survey of provisions in labor agreements in the federal service, October, 1975, Washington, D.C.: The Office. Asthma. 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